Only 64.2 million square feet of new retail space was under construction nationwide during the first quarter of 2026, a decline of roughly 8% from 70 million square feet in Q1 2025 and well below the 10-year average of 90 million square feet, according to CoStar Group data. The pullback in construction reflects a difficult development environment as sharp rises in land prices, construction costs, and interest rates over recent years have pushed required rents well above prevailing market levels for many retail formats. Beyond cost pressures, developers remain cautious following years of heightened supply risk awareness, while competition for sites from higher-density residential, industrial, and mixed-use projects further constrains retail development opportunities, particularly in infill locations. Despite tight construction pipelines, retail transaction volume reached $15.3 billion in Q1 2026, up 5% year-over-year, with national vacancy at 4.4% and institutional investors expanding allocations to the sector as retailers favor measured, capital-disciplined expansion strategies.
The average viral trend on TikTok lasts just five to 10 days before attention shifts, and with 42% of Gen Z consumers in the U.S. discovering new products on TikTok, brands need to move much faster than the traditional six to 24 month product-to-shelf timeline. TikTok has become a powerful launchpad for products with over 1.04 billion active monthly users, putting retail cycles into overdrive as brands capitalize on the platform's ability to spark viral moments and drive high demand. Examples include chef influencer Tineke Younger's viral mac and cheese recipe leading to a Nestlé Carnation collaboration for limited-edition Kickin' Jalapeño Flavored Evaporated Milk, and the infamous "Labubu" dolls generating 1.4 million-plus TikTok posts leading to chaotic scenes in UK stores. Gen Z-focused brands like Halara, Edikted, and Cider are testing physical retail through pop-up stores to create immersive brand experiences and translate TikTok buzz into real-world engagement using temporary store formats with flexible fixture setups and trend-responsive visuals.
The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 10% in May 2026 to 44.8, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and dropping just below the previous historical low seen in June 2022, as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to lift gasoline prices. The Current Conditions Index plunged 12.8% to 45.8 and is down 22% year-over-year, while the Index of Consumer Expectations declined 8.3% to 44.1, with consumers anticipating business conditions will worsen over both short and long time horizons. Nearly 40% of consumers offered unsolicited comments about gas prices during interviews, up from 33% the previous month, with lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posting particularly strong declines as these groups are more sensitive to increases in gas costs, which have risen sharply by more than 50% since the start of the Iran conflict. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.8% over the next year, up from 4.7% in April, with longer-term inflation expectations also climbing sharply, raising concerns that inflation will spread beyond fuel prices even in the long run