What to watch in retail in 2026
Friday, February 6, 2026
This is a summary
"Retail real estate has always been shaped by shifting consumer habits and economic cycles. In the 1970s, department store–anchored malls offered a one-stop shopping experience that resonated with a growing suburban population. The trend accelerated through the 1980s, as malls claimed prime real estate across the country. But by the 1990s, the landscape began to shift again with the rapid rise of category killers like Lowe’s and Home Depot, which redefined how — and where — Americans shopped.
But while the retail landscape continued to adapt through the 1990s and early 2000s, a surprising trend emerged: a sharp slowdown in new development. Despite significant population growth over the past two decades, retail construction has lagged behind.
In the early 2000s, the United States averaged around 300 million sq. ft. of new retail construction annually. By contrast, only about 42 million sq. ft. of retail space was delivered last year, while the U.S. population has grown by more than 46 million people since 2005. The old adage that “retail follows rooftops” has not held true in recent years."
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The enduring durability of retail real estate | Chain Store Age
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Retail industry trends for 2026 include continued AI adoption for product research and customer service, value-seeking consumers driving traffic to discount retailers, and shopping malls experiencing a rebound with renewed investment in mixed-use projects. Mall foot traffic increased in 2025, with indoor malls seeing a 1.8% rise in visits and visit durations up 3.3% compared to the first half of 2024, as traditional retail shopping centers transform into destinations for entertainment and experiences. Industry executives remain optimistic, with 96% expecting revenue growth and 81% anticipating margin expansion in 2026, despite challenges including weakened consumer buying power, high interest rates, and competition from mass merchants and value retailers. Specialty retailers face particular vulnerability in 2026 as high interest rates, shifts toward online shopping, and aggressive competition from mass merchants are predicted to push overleveraged companies into bankruptcy.
U.S. retail sales are projected to grow 3.5% year-over-year in 2026 to reach $5.3 trillion, slightly down from estimated 4.0% growth in 2025, according to Bain & Company's 2026 Global Retail Sales Outlook. Volume growth will remain modest with inflation projected between 2.6% and 3.0%, as mounting consumer strain and declining confidence affect spending amid economic uncertainty, rising unemployment, and slowing labor supply growth. Bain's Consumer Health Index found that sentiment among higher-income U.S. households, who account for more than half of retail spending, declined in January 2026. The report notes that shoppers increasingly gravitating toward lower-priced and private label goods could create a "flight to value" that tempers nominal sales growth, though reduced taxes, declining fuel prices, and potential interest rate cuts could bolster consumer sentiment and spending power.
Inflation is forecast to rise to 2.7% in 2026 as businesses pass more tariff costs to consumers, up from approximately 2.6% in 2025, with consumption growth expected to ease to 1.9% as households work to rebuild savings rates. The Trump tariffs represent the largest U.S. tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993, amounting to an average household tax increase of $1,500 in 2026, with the weighted average applied tariff rate on all imports rising to 15.8%. Goldman Sachs economists estimate that as of August, U.S. businesses were absorbing 51% of tariff costs while American consumers shouldered 37% of the burden, though consumers are projected to absorb 55% by the end of 2025. Manufacturers have expressed that tariffs are hurting consumer demand, pushing up prices, and complicating business planning, with some firms shifting focus from efficiency-improving capital investments to mitigating tariff costs.