Retail industry trends for 2026 include continued AI adoption for product research and customer service, value-seeking consumers driving traffic to discount retailers, and shopping malls experiencing a rebound with renewed investment in mixed-use projects. Mall foot traffic increased in 2025, with indoor malls seeing a 1.8% rise in visits and visit durations up 3.3% compared to the first half of 2024, as traditional retail shopping centers transform into destinations for entertainment and experiences. Industry executives remain optimistic, with 96% expecting revenue growth and 81% anticipating margin expansion in 2026, despite challenges including weakened consumer buying power, high interest rates, and competition from mass merchants and value retailers. Specialty retailers face particular vulnerability in 2026 as high interest rates, shifts toward online shopping, and aggressive competition from mass merchants are predicted to push overleveraged companies into bankruptcy.

U.S. retail sales are projected to grow 3.5% year-over-year in 2026 to reach $5.3 trillion, slightly down from estimated 4.0% growth in 2025, according to Bain & Company's 2026 Global Retail Sales Outlook. Volume growth will remain modest with inflation projected between 2.6% and 3.0%, as mounting consumer strain and declining confidence affect spending amid economic uncertainty, rising unemployment, and slowing labor supply growth. Bain's Consumer Health Index found that sentiment among higher-income U.S. households, who account for more than half of retail spending, declined in January 2026. The report notes that shoppers increasingly gravitating toward lower-priced and private label goods could create a "flight to value" that tempers nominal sales growth, though reduced taxes, declining fuel prices, and potential interest rate cuts could bolster consumer sentiment and spending power. 

Inflation is forecast to rise to 2.7% in 2026 as businesses pass more tariff costs to consumers, up from approximately 2.6% in 2025, with consumption growth expected to ease to 1.9% as households work to rebuild savings rates. The Trump tariffs represent the largest U.S. tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993, amounting to an average household tax increase of $1,500 in 2026, with the weighted average applied tariff rate on all imports rising to 15.8%. Goldman Sachs economists estimate that as of August, U.S. businesses were absorbing 51% of tariff costs while American consumers shouldered 37% of the burden, though consumers are projected to absorb 55% by the end of 2025. Manufacturers have expressed that tariffs are hurting consumer demand, pushing up prices, and complicating business planning, with some firms shifting focus from efficiency-improving capital investments to mitigating tariff costs.

Fashion retailer Francesca's is permanently ceasing operations following a progressive wave of store closures and layoffs, with the Houston corporate headquarters closure impacting 202 employees on a rolling basis. The abrupt liquidation was triggered by unpaid vendors allegedly owed $250 million, with employees reportedly laid off without warning and liquidation sales beginning in mid-January 2026. Francesca's, which was founded in Houston in 1999 and peaked at over 600 locations by 2016, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in December 2020 and was sold to TerraMar Capital for $18 million in early 2021. Despite post-bankruptcy revival efforts including launching a tween line called Franki by Francesca's and acquiring lifestyle brand Richer Poorer, the company continued struggling with liquidity issues and financial pressures. 

Discount grocer Aldi plans to open more than 180 new stores across 31 states in 2026, celebrating its 50th anniversary in the U.S. and pushing toward its goal of 3,200 stores by 2028. The expansion includes entering Maine as its 40th state with a Portland location, launching a five-year Colorado expansion plan with 50 stores in Denver and Colorado Springs, and converting close to 80 Southeastern Grocers locations to the Aldi format. Aldi will launch a redesigned website early in 2026 featuring tailored product recommendations for easy reordering, expanded nutritional information, shoppable recipes, and meal planning tools to support both curbside pickup and home delivery. The company plans to open three new distribution centers over the next three years in Baldwin, Florida; Goodyear, Arizona; and Aurora, Colorado, as part of its $9 billion investment through 2028. 

Mall jewelry and accessories retailer Claire's is planning technology upgrades for 2026, including more seamless data and application integrations and implementation of a modern point-of-sale platform to enhance customer in-store experiences. In 2025, the company focused on transformation and modernization, achieving technology-related cost reductions including a 48% year-over-year reduction in Microsoft Azure cloud spending through automation and improved governance, while also optimizing Microsoft 365 licensing and accelerating store technology refreshes. Looking ahead to 2026, Claire's plans to upgrade legacy systems, deliver faster data integrations, and implement modern POS platforms, with technology positioned as a growth engine rather than just an enabler. The technology transformation comes as the company works to reduce costs and regain its market footing following financial challenges.

Saks Global is not ruling out Chapter 11 bankruptcy as a last resort while exploring all potential paths to secure financial stability. The luxury retail conglomerate, which owns Saks Fifth Avenue, Saks OFF 5TH, Neiman Marcus, and Bergdorf Goodman, faces a more than $100 million debt payment due at the end of December and has been weighing emergency financing options or asset sales. The company missed an interest payment of over $100 million and is in talks with creditors to secure financing for the bankruptcy process, while it has been struggling with rising inflation and weakening consumer demand for luxury items. The financial troubles come after Saks raised billions of dollars last year to finance its acquisition of Neiman Marcus, which was intended to create a technology-powered luxury retail company backed by investors including Amazon, but the deal placed the company deeper in debt.

Core retail sales declined slightly by 0.04% month-over-month in November but increased 4.66% year-over-year according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor. Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, rose 0.15% month-over-month and 2.35% year-over-year, with the November performance occurring despite Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday falling in December. Online and non-store sales surged 21.48% year-over-year, while grocery and beverage stores increased 5.31% annually. For the first eleven months of 2024, total sales were up 2.15% year-over-year and core sales rose 2.33%, aligning with NRF's forecast of 2.5% to 3.5% growth for the November-December holiday season.