Bain & Co.: U.S. retail sales to grow 3.5% in 2026

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Bain & Co.: U.S. retail sales to grow 3.5% in 2026
 
Published Wednesday, February 4, 2026 11:00 am
by Marianne Wilson

This is a summary

"Retail sales growth will slow in the U.S., U.K., France and Germany in 2026. That’s according to Bain & Company’s 2026 Global Retail Sales Outlook, which projects U.S. retail sales will grow 3.5% year over year in 2026, to $5.3 trillion, slightly down from estimated 4.0% growth in 2025. Volume growth will be modest, with inflation projected to hover between 2.6% and 3.0%.

The key factors affecting growth are mounting consumer strain and waning consumer confidence amid economic uncertainty, rising unemployment, and slowing labor supply growth, the report said. Bain’s Consumer Health Index found that sentiment among higher-income U.S. households, who account for more than half of spending, declined in January 2026. As shoppers increasingly gravitate toward lower-priced and private label goods, a "flight to value" could temper nominal sales growth. 

However, reduced taxes, declining fuel prices and potential interest rate cuts could bolster shopper sentiment and spending power, supporting Bain's sales forecast."

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Bain & Co.: U.S. retail sales to grow 3.5% in 2026 | Chain Store Age

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Bain & Co.: U.S. retail sales to grow 3.5% in 2026 | Chain Store Age

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