Retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026; outlook tops average growth of past 10 years

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Retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026; outlook tops average growth of past 10 years
 
Published Friday, April 3, 2026 11:00 am
by Marianne Wilson

This is a summary

"Consumer resilience is expected to continue in 2026, with higher-income households driving the majority of growth in retail spending.

That’s according to the National Retail Federation, which forecast that retail sales in 2026 will grow 4.4% over 2025 to $5.6 trillion. (NRF’s forecast is based on its own definition of core retail sales, which excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.) 

NRF's 2026 sales outlook compares with 3.6% average annual sales growth during the last 10 years (excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022 when growth was atypical). The outlook is based on a newly enhanced forecasting approach developed in partnership with Oxford Economics.

NRF chief economist and executive director of research Mark Mathews cautioned that renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape.

“While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead,” he added."

Read the original on Chain Store Age

Retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026; outlook tops average growth of past 10 years | Chain Store Age

Image credit Markus Winkler on Unsplash

 
 

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Retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026; outlook tops average growth of past 10 years

The National Retail Federation forecast that retail sales in 2026 will grow 4.4% over 2025 to reach $5.6 trillion, exceeding the 3.6% average annual sales growth over the past 10 years excluding the pandemic period. The forecast, developed in partnership with Oxford Economics, notes that higher-income households will drive the majority of spending growth across retail categories, with consumer activity receiving a modest boost from tax refunds associated with the Working Families Tax Cut Act.  Although consumer sentiment is not expected to improve significantly and remains historically low, NRF emphasizes that sentiment has remained disconnected from actual spending patterns, with solid fundamentals including income growth, household balance sheets, and labor market stability expected to support consumer activity. While the forecast presents a stronger outlook than most recent projections, renewed tensions in the Middle East and trade policy challenges add uncertainty, though these geopolitical events were not factored into the current forecast and could trigger a revision if circumstances dictate. 

Retailers report shrink levels down from pandemic highs

Multiple major retailers report that shrink levels have declined significantly and are returning to pre-pandemic levels, with industry experts calling it "a nonevent" compared to recent years. Target's shrink returned to pre-pandemic levels in early 2026, down from expectations that shrink would reduce 2022 profits by $600 million, with executives attributing improvements to team efforts and industry collaboration against retail theft. Loss prevention experts suggest the improvement stems primarily from inventory predictability and supply chain stability rather than dramatic drops in shoplifting, as the pandemic-era supply chain disruptions that caused excess inventory in 2022 have now stabilized. Industry consultant Brand Elverston estimates that shrink losses are likely split evenly between theft and operational breakdowns such as inventory management errors, challenging the long-held narrative that theft accounts for nearly 70% of losses.