Retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026; outlook tops average growth of past 10 years

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Retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026; outlook tops average growth of past 10 years
 
Published Friday, April 3, 2026 11:00 am
by Marianne Wilson

This is a summary

"Consumer resilience is expected to continue in 2026, with higher-income households driving the majority of growth in retail spending.

That’s according to the National Retail Federation, which forecast that retail sales in 2026 will grow 4.4% over 2025 to $5.6 trillion. (NRF’s forecast is based on its own definition of core retail sales, which excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.) 

NRF's 2026 sales outlook compares with 3.6% average annual sales growth during the last 10 years (excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022 when growth was atypical). The outlook is based on a newly enhanced forecasting approach developed in partnership with Oxford Economics.

NRF chief economist and executive director of research Mark Mathews cautioned that renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape.

“While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead,” he added."

Read the original on Chain Store Age

Retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026; outlook tops average growth of past 10 years | Chain Store Age

Image credit Markus Winkler on Unsplash

 
 

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Retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026; outlook tops average growth of past 10 years | Chain Store Age

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