Bain & Co.: U.S. holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion for first time

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Bain & Co.: U.S. holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion for first time
 
Published Friday, September 18, 2026 12:30 pm
by Tatiana Walk-Morris

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"U.S. retail sales during November and December are forecast to grow 4.5% year over year and top $1 trillion for the first time, according to a Thursday release from Bain & Company. Inflation will account for over half of the nominal rise in sales, per the report. 

  • While in-store retail sales are expected to grow 2.5%, online sales are expected to rise 9% year over year, according to Bain’s findings based on a survey of over 1,100 consumers. 
  • Nearly a fourth (24%) of consumers plan to start their holiday shopping journey using AI platforms like Google Gemini, ChatGPT and Claude, an increase from 17% last year, the report found."

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Bain & Co.: U.S. holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion for first time | Retail Dive

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Bain & Co.: U.S. holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion for first time | Retail Dive

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Bain & Co.: U.S. holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion for first time

U.S. retail sales during the November-December holiday season are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, with sales projected to increase 4.5% year-over-year, according to Bain & Company's 2026 holiday forecast. More than half of the expected nominal sales growth will be attributable to inflation, raising questions about actual purchasing power gains. While in-store retail sales are expected to grow 2.5%, online sales are expected to rise 9% year-over-year, with non-store sales expected to account for about 60% of total holiday sales growth versus 50% last year. Retailers are likely well-stocked for the holidays as the year's peak shipping season rounded out, with early peak season ordering occurring ahead of tariff changes in late July. U.S. Holiday Sales Expected To Top $1 Trillion For First Time. +4

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