What the Super El Niño means for retail

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What the Super El Niño means for retail
 
Published Wednesday, October 7, 2026 11:00 am
by Daphne Howland

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"Just when merchandising and inventory management seemed complicated enough, thanks to shifting tariffs and rising costs, along comes the strongest El Niño weather disruption on record.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern where sea surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean rise near the equator, setting in motion weather anomalies across the globe. Its impact will be strongest in North America and during the fall and winter months.

As a result, this year’s event, already dubbed Super El Niño in some quarters, is destined to upset seasonal merchandising plans — unless retailers prepare for it, according to Matthew Porcelli, meteorologist and senior solutions engineer at The Weather Company."

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What the Super El Niño means for retail


The strongest El Niño weather disruption on record is destined to upset seasonal merchandising plans unless retailers prepare for it, with the phenomenon expected to peak between October and January 2026-2027. Brands that sell apparel for low temperatures or gear for winter sports face vulnerability to a potentially very warm winter, including retailers like Burlington, Deckers, Canada Goose, and VF Corp's The North Face and Timberland brands. Conversely, retailers selling warm-weather apparel and goods stand to benefit from extended warm-season purchasing windows that disrupt traditional fall and winter retail cycles. The largest retail implication may emerge through the food supply chain as El Niño adds a layer of volatility to already pressured commodities, with price impacts expected to reach retail shelves six to twelve months after the event peaks, likely in 2027. Over a quarter of consumers surveyed said that good weather leads them to spend more, and warm temperatures caused by El Niño will seem like good weather to many people.

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